Luna Rossa vs Ineos, who wins the Louis Vuitton Cup?We give you the percentages

Bookmakers give slight favorite Luna Rossa: odds give her winning in the Louis Vuitton Cup final that starts tomorrow.
The Italians with 1.50/1.60, while the British Ineos are given at 2/2.15.

Luna Rossa VS INEOS, who wins?

Small differences in odds.
We, too, tried to analyze the chances of the two teams competing from Sept. 26, where whoever first makes seven wins goes to the America’s Cup final from Oct. 12 against New Zealand’s trophy defenders.

Luna Rossa vs Ineos – Race Course

It will be fiery days (two regattas a day) with the crazy variable of the Race Course.
Certainly Barcelona has not proved to be the ideal race course for holding regular regattas.
We could call it typical of the Mediterranean: capricious and unpredictable.

Boat

Some say the Italians are superior to Ineos in lighter winds, while when the intensity rises above 12 to 15 knots the British boat is a bit faster.
To sum up: the speed difference between the two Louis Vuitton finalists has not been the key to the success of one or the other boat so far.
But no one knows what the upgrades have been, which there certainly have been, and whether they will be decisive.
That is why the percentages are: Red Moon 50% Ineos 50%

Helmsmen

For what is seen so far the Ineos pair Ben Ainsle and Dylan Fletcher have been more aggressive and determined in their overall helming, somewhat more effective than the Luna Rossa Jimmy Spithill/Checco Bruni pairing.
So: Luna Rossa 40%Ineos60%

Tactics

Attention to jumps and wind pressure in the narrow race enclosure plays in ours’ favor, although Ineos was relentless in the “melee.”
So the assessment is: Red Moon 60%
Ineos 40%

Departures

We have seen that with boats so similar in performance, the start is critical.
So far Ineos and especially that “beast” Ben Ainslie have shown an aggressiveness at the cost of risking penalties (which penalize much less than in traditional racing) that puts them a step above the other specialist Spithill, who on Prada has been more conservative.
The result: Red Moon 40%
Ineos 60%

Team

Luna Rossa is in its seventh America’s Cup campaign (with two wins in the Louis Vuitton Cup) and it shows.
The team of the Italian boat steered by Max Sirena is strong in all aspects.
Just look at the miracle performed overnight to repair the mainsail carriage.
The experience of the British team is inferior, therefore: Red Moon 60%
Ineos 40%

Conclusion

Barring any surprises in the performance gains of either boat after the upgrades of the past few days, the situation of percentages of probability of victory is now one of absolute parity:

Luna Rossa 50%Ineos 50%

That’s also what we talk about tonight at 6:30 p.m. in our must-see Cup Trial.
Don’t miss it: